Estimate

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(New page: Estimating future is hard. As a result Oracle requires its employees to never commit to particular release dates publicly. There is a special, law oriented language expressing this whi...)
Current revision (02:00, 25 October 2020) (edit) (undo)
 
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Estimating future is hard. As a result [[Oracle]] requires its employees to never commit to particular release dates publicly. There is a special, law oriented language expressing this which is supposed to be included in every presentation that includes [[estimate]]s of [[Oracle]] product future plans.
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Estimating future is hard. As a result [[Oracle]] requires its employees to never commit to particular release dates publicly. We can talk about the dates, but we have to mention they are just [[estimate]]s. There is a special, law oriented language expressing this which is supposed to be included in every presentation that mentions future [[Oracle]] product plans.
== Using Wide Range ==
== Using Wide Range ==
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I found the language weird, but I understand the purpose. To comply with the goal while avoiding the weirdness I am using a range that includes past. For example, now in March, 2013 I would say:
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I found the language weird, but I understand its purpose. To comply with the goal while avoiding the weirdness I am using a range that includes past. For example, now in March, 2013 I would say:
[[NetBeans]] 7.3.1 is going to be released in May 2013 - plus/minus six months.
[[NetBeans]] 7.3.1 is going to be released in May 2013 - plus/minus six months.
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but you can also deliver in the past!!
but you can also deliver in the past!!
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If the delivery is in May 2013 plus or minus six months, the it could
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If the delivery is in May 2013 plus or minus six months, it could
be that you are going to deliver last Xmas (2012) :-)
be that you are going to deliver last Xmas (2012) :-)
This is cool!
This is cool!
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Time to explain the history behind this kind of [[estimate]]s...
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Thanks, that is why I am using the wide range! Time to explain the history behind this kind of [[estimate]]s...
== Plus/Minus 200 Years ==
== Plus/Minus 200 Years ==
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into village Liptákov.
into village Liptákov.
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One of them decides to calculate the time by measuring radioactive decay of
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One of them decides to calculate the time by measuring [[wikipedia:Radioactive_decay|radioactive decay]] of
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carbon found on Cimrman boots and concludes that Cimrman arrived in 1905
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[[wikipedia:Radiocarbon_dating|carbon-14]] found on Cimrman boots and concludes that Cimrman arrived in 1905
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plus/minus two hundred years. Another one abase to old fashioned method of
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plus/minus two hundred years. Another person abase to old fashioned method of
reading the village chronicle to find out it dates Cimrman's arrival to
reading the village chronicle to find out it dates Cimrman's arrival to
September 1905.
September 1905.
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Should not we call this kind of [[estimate]] - Cimrman's [[estimate]]? Planning based on this [[estimate]] could be called Cimrman's planning!
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So much about using modern [[estimate]] methods.
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=== Cimrman's Planning ===
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Should not we call this kind of [[estimate]] - Cimrman's [[estimate]]? Planning based on wide range [[estimate]] could be called Cimrman's planning!
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Imagine the [[Good Name]]s that could be associated with such planning methodology: Accurate, modern, reliable, flexible, agile, optimistic, forward looking, experience based, projective, defensive, high precision planning for [[clueless]] masses!
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Can you name few more?

Current revision

Estimating future is hard. As a result Oracle requires its employees to never commit to particular release dates publicly. We can talk about the dates, but we have to mention they are just estimates. There is a special, law oriented language expressing this which is supposed to be included in every presentation that mentions future Oracle product plans.

Contents

Using Wide Range

I found the language weird, but I understand its purpose. To comply with the goal while avoiding the weirdness I am using a range that includes past. For example, now in March, 2013 I would say: 

 NetBeans 7.3.1 is going to be released in May 2013 - plus/minus six months.

I am hoping the fact that the beginning of the interval already happened and the 7.3.1 version has not been released yet will hint everyone to treat the above statement as a rough estimate only.

Seems to Work

The wide range estimate seems to work. Today I received following analysis: 

 Additionally, I see that your planning is more or less like our, 
 but you can also deliver in the past!!
 
 If the delivery is in May 2013 plus or minus six months, it could 
 be that you are going to deliver last Xmas (2012) :-) 

 This is cool!

Thanks, that is why I am using the wide range! Time to explain the history behind this kind of estimates...

Plus/Minus 200 Years

The idea is based on famous (among Czechs) play of theater of Jára Cimrman. In the play a group of historians is trying to find a date when Cimrman arrived into village Liptákov.

One of them decides to calculate the time by measuring radioactive decay of carbon-14 found on Cimrman boots and concludes that Cimrman arrived in 1905 plus/minus two hundred years. Another person abase to old fashioned method of reading the village chronicle to find out it dates Cimrman's arrival to September 1905.

So much about using modern estimate methods.

Cimrman's Planning

Should not we call this kind of estimate - Cimrman's estimate? Planning based on wide range estimate could be called Cimrman's planning!

Imagine the Good Names that could be associated with such planning methodology: Accurate, modern, reliable, flexible, agile, optimistic, forward looking, experience based, projective, defensive, high precision planning for clueless masses!

Can you name few more?

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